Who is Sinan Ogan the third in the elections and the main man in the second round?

The ultra-nationalist, who received 5% of the vote in the first round, has not yet decided on his selection for the second round. Postponing the vote could be crucial.

All eyes are on him now. Since the first round of balloting, on Sunday, May 14, Sinan Ogan is no longer in the race for the Turkish presidency. The person who received 5.3% of the vote did not fit in with the outgoing president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (49.5%), and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu (44.9%), who qualified for an unprecedented second round in the country. The two contenders, who will be decided on May 28, are neck and neck, making Sinan Ogan the potential kingmaker in the election by voting game.

Currently, the candidate representing the Ultra Nationalist Ancestors Alliance (ATA) has not invited to vote for one of the finalists. “We will consult the political parties that make up the ATA coalition (…) and we will make a final decision”Sinan Oğan announced in his first speech after the results, adding that he would be there We have another 15 difficult days ahead [lui et ses partisans]. What are the demands of this politician whose votes may be decisive in the outcome of the elections? Who is the candidate closest to him on the political spectrum? response elements.

A former member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party

This 55-year-old business administration graduate of Azerbaijani descent is a defector from the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) now allied with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), BBC reports (article in turkish). The Nationalist Movement Party is known in particular for its anti-Kurdish stances and its armed wing, the Gray Wolves. In 2011, Sinan Ogan entered parliament under the name of this party. But since 2015, he has registered his disagreement with the party’s Secretary General, Devlet Bahceli. In particular, he blames the rapprochement between the Nationalist Movement Party and the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which Sinan Ogan opposes.

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After leaving and then returning to the MHP several times, this ultra-nationalist was finally expelled from the party in 2017. Then he decided to go it alone and run in the next elections without a party. However, it receives the support of the ATA coalition, which brings together four parties with nationalist positions, including the Victory Party, which is the most important in the coalition. Its leader, Ümit Özdag, has in the past expressed his opposition to a rapprochement with Erdogan.recalls Max Valentine Robert, researcher in political science at the University of Nottingham (UK). “I cannot see the Victory Party calling for a vote for the current president.”

An anti-Kurdish, anti-immigration ultra-nationalist

However, Sinan Oğan shares Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rejection of the Kurdish minority. In his speech after the results he mentions that defeated candidate “Since the first day, [son camp avait] They took a stand against parties like the HDP.”It is a left-wing, pro-Kurdish party that supports Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Interrogated by the German media Der Spiegel After the elections, Sinan Ogan put forward as one of the conditions to support the underdogs in the ballot Excluding the HDP from the political systempress reports SPIEGEL Maximilian Blub.

For his part, Kemal Kilicdaroglu did not expand on the Kurdish issue. The opposition leader calls for calm with this minority and promises, if victory is achieved, to release the leader of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, Salah al-Din Demirtas, who was imprisoned in 2016. “Seguin Ogan accuses the opposition coalition of collusion with the Kurds”Samim Akgünül, Director of the Department of Turkish Studies at the University of Strasbourg. Kilicdaroglu finds himself torn: if he corrects his rhetoric, he will lose Kurdish support, but if he maintains the same line, he will not win that support from the far right..

Another variable that will play into choosing to convey ultra-nationalist voices: the fight against immigration. During the campaign, Sinan Ogan proposed the return of more than three million Syrian refugees living on Turkish soil. “What I want clear is for the Syrians to go. All the refugees should go home. The candidate who agrees to this and puts this policy into practice, I will vote for him.”He confirmed during his press conference.

On this issue, Sinan Ogan is closer to Kemal Kilicdaroglu than to Erdogan.

Max Valentine Robert is a researcher in political science at the University of Nottingham

at franceinfo

Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu called for normalizing relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to quickly return refugees to Syria. If Recep Tayyip Erdogan had the same project, “He is responsible for the situation by those who oppose the presence of refugees.”says Samim Akgünül.

Defending secular nationalism

Finally, unlike Erdoğan, Sinan Oğan appears as a secular nationalist figure rather than an Islamist. “It comes from a very suspicious right of the Islamic right, which projects Turkey in the Turkic-speaking world, and not in the Middle East, as Erdogan does.”Max Valentine Robert points out. In this sense, he is close to Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who advocates the principle of secularism.

Therefore, it is difficult to predict who will invite Sinan Ogan to vote based on his ideological proximity to the last candidates in the race. To fluctuate the balance, it is also likely to negotiate key political positions in the future. The interview was conducted by Bahar Faizan on his YouTube channel three days before the electionSinan Ogan set the tone: “We will not be free partners. We will have requests like ministries.”.

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