I’m pro-vaccine, you know that. And a passport supporter. I still wonder: How far should we increase the vaccination rate?
In a perfect world, almost all of them would have gotten two doses quickly. Moreover, with a more contagious variant, herd immunity is achieved with a higher vaccination rate.
With that said, how far must we go now that we have exceeded the 75% vaccination goal in 12 years and more?(1) ?
When will we be really satisfied? When will we be able to allow young people to attend their classes without wearing a mask? Do employees physically work as a team without getting slapped on their fingers? For customers to enter the stores even if they forgot their mask?
Horacio Arruda brought up a new 95% rate for those 12 years of age or older, ie. But is this realistic?
The naysayers are getting more and more difficult to convince, and it may take a long time to get there. Meanwhile, obedient people should postpone the long-awaited return to normal.
The authorities’ strategy in response to COVID-19 is primarily to ensure that the health system is able to meet the needs. That the network have enough staff, beds, and ventilators to care for COVID-19 patients without harming patients with other illnesses.
However, this goal has been achieved. In recent days, hospitals have treated about 100 patients with COVID-19 in Quebec, 15 times fewer than in January 2021 or May 2020. Thanks to the vaccine, the proportion of hospitalized cases is at its lowest since these reliable figures are available.(2).
What are you going to do with the delta variable, you’ll tell me? Should we not fear that this alternative, which has affected Quebec less than anywhere else, will explode in hospitals?
To find out, I analyzed some countries hard hit by the fourth wave and the delta variant, which have high vaccination rates (more than 60% of their population received two doses).
Conclusion: In the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal and Denmark, the recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases has not translated into a similar increase in hospitalizations. On the contrary, the two curves do not follow each other for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic. The four charts, which I created using data from Our World in Data, are very eloquent.
So we can hope it will be the same in Quebec and Canada, which are at the beginning of the fourth wave.
Of course, concerns remain. A US study on Tuesday found that the effectiveness of Pfizer and Moderna’s two vaccines increased from 91% to 66% against the delta variant in the United States. It is not yet clear whether the loss of efficacy is explained by the variable itself or the erosion of vaccine efficacy over time.
Moreover, in Israel, one of the first countries to achieve a high vaccination rate, cases rose sharply and hospitalizations continued to follow the curve of cases, which is very surprising.
Is it the erosion of the effectiveness of the vaccine or the recklessness of non-vaccinators? The insurgency is still a lot in Israel, since the full vaccination rate has peaked at 55-60% since last May.
I am pro-vaccine, I repeat. And a passport supporter, even for primary, secondary, and CEGEP teachers, and even for all college students, including students.
But targeting vaccination at 95% or more seems unrealistic to me, at least in a reasonable time frame.
The limitations associated with this goal will affect more and more over time, with consequences for the proper functioning of society. Each additional percentage point of vaccination will cost more.
If we freeze at 92%, for example, will people be forcibly vaccinated? I am of the opinion that 8% of the unvaccinated should be allowed to be immunized by contracting the virus. In any case, at this point, treating them will cost the state and society less than the cost of imposing a vaccination.
1- The full vaccination rate exceeds 78% between 12 years and older and exceeds 86% for first-time vaccinations.
2- It is difficult to explain the ratio of cases to hospitalization, because the cases listed are daily, while hospitalization on a specific date is an accumulation of the occupied family for a few days. The fact remains that its downward trend is representative.
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