At first glance, the numbers may seem worrying. The number of new daily cases of Covit-19 in the United Kingdom, where the delta variant – the most widespread – is now in the majority, has increased by 61% in a week. This Wednesday evening, the curve should be in France’s “cross” for one and a half months free fall.
Still, if scientists and British officials are generally concerned, one element has something to promise them: the apparent efficacy of vaccines. More than one in two British adults received two doses, which is twice as much as in France. In highly affected areas such as the northwest of the UK, an increased incidence is rarely seen, except among those under 60 and especially young people. However, the younger we go the further down, the fewer vaccines. Hospital admissions are also on the rise, but at a smaller rate than new cases. Again, this is only for people under 65 years of age.
Three reasons may explain why the growth of hospital admissions is slower than new causes. First, there will always be a ten-day lag between the two curves, so you have to be careful in understanding the data. In addition, as we have seen, the victims are younger. Therefore they are less susceptible to severe form of the disease.
Finally, “there is little or no transmission of the virus to those who have been vaccinated, and if infected, they often develop milder forms of the disease,” said Franுவாois Maiken, a London-based pharmacologist. “The vaccine breaks the link between infections, hospitalizations and deaths,” British Health Minister Matt Hancock told parliament on Monday.
Race against time
According to data from Public Health UK, most of the confirmed cases of this delta variant (so-called “Indian”) and hospitalized patients were not vaccinated, or received only the first dose there. More than three weeks. While this was the case for 43% of the population of all ages, only 4% of positive individuals had two injections.
In mid-May, the British health agency said it was up 93.% against the alpha variant (“British”), at least two weeks after the second dose, to prevent up to 87.9% of symptom patterns due to delta variation. One is slightly reduced performance, but it is fine. The effect is greatest after a single dose because the effectiveness is reduced by 20 points. Also the most widely used astrogenic in the United Kingdom shows less good results. But beware: these are only “observable” data, which may have some implications. We do not have scientific studies on the risk of further transmission and the acute form of the disease.
In the short term, it is difficult to say who will win this “race against time” between variants and vaccination. The vast majority (almost 40%) of the British population has not yet received any measure, so it is still particularly vulnerable. To increase the chances on its side, the government on Tuesday lowered the age limit for vaccination in the UK At the age of 25, Compared to 30 years ago. He may also decide to postpone the last phase elimination scheduled for June 21 for a few days or a few weeks.