As we examine the credibility of current climate promises, our assessment shows that the world is far from ensuring a safe climate future.Write to editors in American magazine ScienceAfter an unprecedented inventory.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aims to contain global average temperature increases
Below 2°C Efforts should instead continue to limit to 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels.
To achieve this, many countries are committed to achieving it
Carbon neutral – When called residual CO2 emissions, i.e. emissions that a country continues to emit despite reduction efforts are absorbed by carbon sinks. Countries have also adopted climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
An international team of researchers provided an index
hope Among the various carbon neutral pledges of 35 countries (or political entities such as the European Union), high emissions are based on three criteria: whether the objective is legally binding; Is it with a political agenda?
Reliable to implement it; And will the policies followed lead to a downward trajectory of emissions over the next decade?
Good students, EU and UK
Conclusion: Almost 90% have a low level of confidence, starting with the two biggest emitters, China and the US. On the other hand, only a few such as the EU and the UK stand out as top performers.
Climate policy is shifting from setting ambitious targets to implementing themUnderlined by Jory RogelgeImperial College London, lead author of the study.
” But our analysis shows that most countries have little confidence that they will honor their commitments. The world is still on a high-risk path in terms of climate, and we are far from establishing a safe climate for the future. »
Based on this, the researchers developed five scenarios of future emissions and thus global warming.
Most conservatives rely only on current policies, while too optimistically imagining that all promises and goals will be fulfilled. NTCwill be achieved. The former is 2.6°C (average estimate) of warming by 2100 and the latter only 1.7°C.
This may suggest that if all carbon neutral policies are fully implemented, the goals of the Paris Agreement can be achieved.assertsImperial College London in a press release.
But since many principles are classified as low confidence, it is wishful thinking without any effort.Underlines the university.
To conclude, the authors suggest ways forward, starting with enshrining climate objectives in the marble of the law, particularly in an attempt to protect against any political reversal.
Legally binding goals are critical to ensure long-term plans are adopted. We need to see concrete legislation that follows up on promisesRobin Lambol insistsImperial CollegeOne of the co-authors.
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